WSOP Main Event 2014: Gentlemen, place your bets

05.11.2014

Only one week separates us from the biggest final table of the year - November Nine. Traditionally, the best skilled theoreticians of the world – those, who are connected with bookmaking – evaluated who is going to be the most likely winner and owner of 10 million dollar prize.

Waiting for the end of the most interesting poker event till November – despite of the fact that the tournament itself started in summer – is very boring. It’s just like with the final season of “Breaking Bad” – it was also divided into two parts. And that was dreadful.

Nevertheless, that’s not the point. Let’s just say that delaying pleasure mustn’t last too long.

So now we have to remind us and the others who has finally made it to the super final table:

1. Jorryt van Hoof (Netherlands) – 38,375,000
2. Felix Stephensen (Norway) – 32,775,000
3. Mark Newhouse (USA) – 26,000,000
4. Andoni Larrabe (Spain) – 22,550,000
5. Dan Sindelar (USA) – 21,200,000
6. Billy Pappaconstantinou (USA) – 17,500,000
7. William Tonking (USA) – 15,050,000
8. Martin Jacobson (Sweden) – 14,900,000
9. Bruno Politano (Brazil) – 12,125,000.

Before going to the odds let’s quickly revise who is who

Players to watch

For starters, most of the players are professionals. The most remarkable are:

  • super high roller, the finalist of $111,111 One Drop High Roller who has over $5 millions in winnings – Martin Jacobson;
  • young American Mark Newhouse , who is the first player after Dan Harrington who has made it to the final table twice in a row! He took 9th place in 2013;
  • 22-year-old 2 SCOOP titles owner Andoni «Pollopopeye» Larrabe;
  • 23-year-old PLO regular Felix «FallAtYourFeet» Stephensen

Why are they the most remarkable? Because they are young, skillful and their win won’t surprise anybody.

2014 World Series of Poker

Martin Jacobson

What do bookmakers say?

  1. Bovada

Sport betting site Bovada (just like everyone else) mostly follows chip count:

1. Jorryt van Hoof (Netherlands) – 57/20
2. Felix Stephensen (Norway) – 4/1
3. Mark Newhouse (USA) – 5/1
4. Andoni Larrabe (Spain) – 7/1
5. Dan Sindelar (USA) – 15/2
6. Martin Jacobson (Sweden) – 8/1
7. Billy Pappaconstantinou (USA) – 10/1
8. William Tonking (USA) – 12/1
9. Bruno Politano (Brazil) – 16/1.

Make it simple: the more chips, the more chances to win.

From the other side, if we consider blind structure (200k/400k, 50k ante) – even Brazilian Politano, whose stack is the shortest, has about 30 big blinds. And that is quite the size – leave van Hoof with his 90 bb aside.

  1. Pinnacle

Analyzing odds from Pinnacle is simpler because they are more accurate. For example, probability of the victory of the Dutch is almost 24%, not that big:

1. Jorryt van Hoof (Netherlands) – 4.189 (3.19/1)
2. Felix Stephensen (Norway) – 5.760 (4.76/1)
3. Mark Newhouse (USA) – 5.790 (4.79/1)
4. Andoni Larrabe (Spain) – 7.480 (6.48/1)
5. Martin Jacobson (Sweden) – 8.120 (7.12/1)
6. Dan Sindelar (USA) – 9.090 (8.09/1)
7. Billy Pappaconstantinou (USA) – 10.960 (9.96/1)
8. William Tonking (USA) – 12.990 (11.99/1)
9. Bruno Politano (Brazil) – 15.900 (14.9/1).

Jorryt_van_Hoof

Jorryt van Hoof 

And that is about right: just three out of the last ten chipleaders of WSOP Main Event have managed to win the tournament.

And Pinnacle has a switch in the order of players: Martin Jacobson is one place up in rankings (the odds makers give bigger appreciation to his past achievements).

Well, that’s all theory. Anybody can win and you can’t guess the outcome of even 9-max SNG. It all depends on luck as well.

Finally, let us remind you that tournament continues on 10th of November! Here are the prize money the players will get at WSOP Main Event 2014:

1. $10,000,000
2. $5,145,968
3. $3,806,402
4. $2,848,833
5. $2,143,174
6. $1,622,080
7. $1,235,862
8. $947,077
9. $730,725.

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